Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate Target at 1 Per Cent.

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is entering a new phase. In advanced economies, temporary factors supporting growth in 2010 - such as the inventory cycle and pent-up demand - have largely run their course and fiscal stimulus will shift to fiscal consolidation over the projection horizon. While the Bank expects that private demand in advanced economies will become sufficiently entrenched to sustain the recovery, the combination of difficult labour market dynamics and ongoing deleveraging in many advanced economies is expected to moderate the pace of growth relative to prior expectations. These factors will contribute to a weaker-than-projected recovery in the United States in particular. Growth in emerging-market economies is expected to ease to a more sustainable pace as fiscal and monetary policies are tightened. Heightened tensions in currency markets and related risks associated with global imbalances could result in a more protracted and difficult global recovery.
The economic outlook for Canada has changed. The Bank expects the economic recovery to be more gradual than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report, with growth of 3.0 per cent in 2010, 2.3 per cent in 2011, and 2.6 per cent in 2012. This more modest growth profile reflects a more gradual global recovery and a more subdued profile for household spending. With housing activity declining markedly as anticipated and household debt considerations becoming more important, the Bank expects household expenditures to decelerate to a pace closer to the rate of income growth over the projection horizon. Overall, the composition of demand in Canada is expected to shift away from government and household expenditures towards business investment and net exports. The strength of net exports will be sensitive to currency movements, the expected recovery in productivity growth, and the prospects for external demand.
Inflation in Canada has been slightly below the Bank’s July projection. The recent moderation in core inflation is consistent with the persistence of significant excess supply and a deceleration in the growth of unit labour costs. The Bank judges that the output gap is slightly larger and that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012 rather than the beginning of that year, as had been anticipated in July. The inflation outlook has been revised down and both total CPI and core inflation are now expected to converge to 2 per cent by the end of 2012, as excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada.
At this time of transition in the global recovery, with a weaker U.S. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging-market economies, and domestic considerations that are expected to slow consumption and housing activity in Canada, any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 October 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 December 2010.

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Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate Target at 1 Per Cent.

Consumers on the long end of the borrowing spectrum appear to be getting a better deal with the five-year term fixed-rate mortgage reaching an all-time low over the past month.

 

By Garry Marr, Financial Post October 17, 2010

Rock-bottom long-term mortgage rates appear to have handed the housing sector the lifeline it desperately needs, helping to push up sales for a second consecutive month and keep prices from falling.
The Canadian Real Estate Association said Friday sales last month rose 3% from August on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis — highest since May 2010 — and the second straight month sales rose.
Meanwhile, prices have also begun to stabilize as fears of a dramatic meltdown appear to be abating. The average price of a home sold in Canada last month was $331,089, down slightly from the $331,683 average a year ago. But prices were up from a month earlier, when the average was $324,928.
“Supply and demand are rebalancing and that’s keeping prices steady in many markets,” said Georges Pahud, president of CREA.


The other factor keeping the market afloat are interest rates.
The Bank of Canada has signalled it will take a pause on raising its key lending rate which should keep the prime rate at most banks at 3%, affecting any variable rate borrowers.
But it’s consumers on the long end of the borrowing spectrum who appear to be getting a better deal with the five-year term fixed-rate mortgage reaching an all-time low over the past month.
Gary Siegle, the Calgary-based regional manager for mortgage broker Invis Inc., said the standard rate for locking in for five years is now 3.69% but adds some lenders have dropped to as low as 3.39%.
“I’ve been working for 38 years and I don’t recall rates this low ever in my career,” said Mr. Siegle, adding the discount on variable-rate mortgages has dropped to the point that consumers can float with a rate as low as 2.35%.
“The question I wonder about is at these rates is why are people not all over the real estate market?”
CREA said two-thirds of local markets last month posted sales increases with Winnipeg, Calgary and Montreal standing out. However, compared with last year, sales still lag across the country, down 19.8% in September from a year ago.
“Record level sales activity late last year and earlier this year is expected to further stretch year-over-year comparisons in the months ahead,” the group warned.
TD Bank Financial Group economist Shahrzad Mobasher Fard expects falling mortgage rates to be a significant boost for the market for the near future. “They are a factor that cannot be dismissed,” said Ms. Mobasher Fard. “[Current rates] won’t lead to an overheating but it will support further growth in home sales and prices. The last two months of data indicate there has been a bottoming out of home-selling activity and prices.”
Demand is still tepid but there has been a slowdown in new listings, which are 15% off the peak reached in April. The number of months of inventory, which represents the number of months it would take to sell inventories at the current rate of sales activity, was down to 6.6 months in September.
It was the second straight month inventory levels dropped, having stood at 6.9 months in August and 7.2 months in July.
“Mortgage lending rates eased in the third quarter, which helped support sales activity over the past couple of months,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA.
“Interest rates are going nowhere fast, so home ownership will remain within reach for many home buyers.”
The chief executive for Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. said he was almost a bit relieved to see the latest figures.
“I was pleasantly surprised to see the year-over-year average price flat given the strength of last year’s September results,” said Phil Soper. “I expected a small decline in average price. It has been driven almost entirely by the low cost of money.”
Financial Post
gmarr@nationalpost.com

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Consumers on the long end of the borrowing spectrum appear to be getting a better deal with the five-year term fixed-rate mortgage reaching an all-time low over the past month.

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RBC Report Says Bank of Canada Likely to hold Rates Until March 2011

RBC report says BoC likely to hold rates until March 2011

This month's RBC Financial Markets Monthly publication reports that the Bank of Canada is likely to hold rates until March 2010.
Report Excerpts:
Canada takes a breather after sprinting out of recession
With real GDP standing a hair’s breadth away from its pre-recession peak and final domestic demand already treading into new territory, reports of more moderate activity in July did not prove too surprising. The sharp recovery in the housing market started to stall in mid-2010 because pent-up demand generated during the recession was satiated and buying—ahead of the mild tightening in mortgage rules and the implementation or increase in the HST in three provinces—was exhausted. The robust sales pace left a high level of household debt in its wake resulting in the debt-to-income ratio rising to an all-time high in the first quarter.
Recent growth has not been strong enough to exert significant downward pressure on the unemployment rate and inflation pressures have been moderate with the core rate at 1.6%. The headline inflation rate was 1.7% in August, thereby holding below the Bank’s 2% target, even after the harmonization of provincial and federal sales taxes in Ontario and BC were incorporated into the price measure. Unlike in the US, where we expect that core inflation will remain very low, we forecast Canada’s core rate to hold just below the 2% target during the forecast horizon and gravitate above 2% in mid-2012.
Rate increases likely to resume in early 2011
Our overall assessment of the Canadian outlook has changed little in the past month, so we are maintaining our call that the Bank will gradually raise the overnight rate to 2.25% in the second half of 2011. This gradual reduction in policy accommodation will keep a lid on the degree that term interest rates will rise especially against a backdrop of very low U.S. rates. We trimmed our 2011 forecast for yields looking for the two-year rate to end 2011 at 2.85% and the 10-year bond yield at 3.75%.

Other highlights from this month's Financial Markets Monthly:

• U.S. data have been a mixed bag and confirm that the U.S. recovery is continuing, albeit slowly. The risk of deflation, not inflation, appears to be at the top of the mind for policymakers now with the Fed likely to implement another round of quantitative easing to ensure that growth and inflation do not slow further.
• The uncertain global outlook is likely to be the dominant factor in the Bank of Canada shifting to the sidelines for the remainder of 2010.
• Policymakers in the UK are unlikely to deliver a further easing in policy unless conditions become much worse.
• The RBA stayed on the sidelines this month although the statement showed a clear tightening bias which sets up for a hike before year end.
• Canada’s economy sputtered in July after very robust domestic demand earlier in the year.
• Inflation remains mild with both the headline and core rates below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The uncertain global outlook is likely to be the dominant factor in the Bank shifting to the sidelines for the remainder of 2010.

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RBC Report Says Bank of Canada Likely to hold Rates Until March 2011