Signs of recovery starting to sway the skeptical

Looks like a V shaped recovery afterall

Paul Vieira, Financial Post

OTTAWA -- Despite all the angst in financial markets over sovereign debt and the populist influence on banking reform proposals, the economies in the United States and Canada have chugged along the road to recovery at a pace that's surprising even the most skeptical of analysts.

Data released Friday indicate U.S. GDP grew in the fourth quarter, an estimated 5.7%, at its fastest pace in six years. Meanwhile in Canada, data show November growth was stronger than expected, at 0.4%, while revisions to September and October figures indicate the economy was much stronger than earlier thought.

"It couldn't have been that easy, could it?," asked Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada, who in previous notes had expressed caution about a slow, uneven recovery. "Yet charting out the month over month GDP looks an awful lot like a "V" shaped recovery."

Prior to the release of this data, markets had been consumed with worries in the aftermath of the financial crisis, be it the debt levels of industrialized countries; a slowdown in Chinese growth as Beijing looks to tighten credit conditions, and measures proposed by the U.S. White House that could scale back the size of U.S. banks, leading them in the meantime to restrict credit growth as given their uncertain future.

"One of the important lessons of the crisis was that it was often helpful to focus squarely on more comprehensible macro-cyclical dynamics than on the noise and complexity of these other areas," Dominic Wilson, director of global macro and markets research for Goldman Sachs, said in a note this week.

"The latest focus on the banks might inadvertently restrict credit or tighten financial conditions in ways that do alter the macro path. But we think it makes sense to stay more focused on the economic news rather than shifting views too much on the basis of handicapping the twists and turns of possible legislation and the inevitable news from Washington."

As for the nuts and bolts of the data, analysts had mixed views.

In the U.S., economists at Capital Economics argued the big estimated headline gain was largely due to inventory rebuilding – hence, there's some skepticism that will kickstart a self-sustaining recovery.

But Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said the U.S. data suggest "the consumer, after being in hiding the previous-six quarters, re-emerged in the second-half of 2009. ... This was a reflection of rising confidence that the recession was ending, the effect of government programs and a very low interest rate environment. Going forward, we expect that consumer spending will remain positive but that increases will be moderate as the hangover from the buying binge in previous years constrains activity."

It is not just the consumer. Business investment also surprised on the strong side, with growth of 2.9% after a 5.9% drop in the previous quarter. Investment in equipment and software jumped 13.3%, well above the 1.5% expansion in the third quarter. Net exports also added to U.S. GDP, in a sign that the country is beginning capitalize on its weaker currency and stellar productivity when it comes to trade.

In Canada, the surprisingly strong November data – and upward revisions to September and October – have economists indicating that the recovery is for real, with some now penciling in growth of at least 4% for the fourth quarter, or above the Bank of Canada's own projections. And remember, the central bank's forecast is at the upper end of market projections.

"This is one of the most convincing signs so far that the Canadian recovery is for real, and neatly dovetails with the robust U.S. GDP result," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Economic recovery becoming more solidly entrenched, says Bank of Canada

OTTAWA - Canada’s economy is becoming more solidly entrenched with the private sector beginning to play an increasingly pivotal role in leading the country out of recession, the Bank of Canada said today in its latest policy report.

In a mildly upbeat assessment of the recovery, the central bank’s quarterly outlook contains some upward revisions for growth in the United States, China, Europe and Japan that should help Canada’s battered exporters and manufacturing sector in the next two years.

And it says Canada’s economy will grow faster going forward than expected, in part because it got off to such a slow start last summer.

Overall, the bank appears more optimistic about the sustainability of the recovery that is happening around the world, although it also cautions that risks of a stall remain.

There is also some upside hope, the bank adds, that conditions may continue to improve better than projected.

“It is thus possible that the recovery in global demand could be more vigorous than projected, resulting in stronger external demand for Canadian exports,” the bank judges.

In Canada, it adds: “Economic growth is expected to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period as self-sustaining growth in private demand takes hold.”

The analysis is broadly similar to what the bank said last October, when it last issued a comprehensive forecast on the economy, but the tone is brighter at the margins and the danger signals less frequent.

For months, bank governor Mark Carney has been cautioning Canadians not to get overextended in purchasing homes, but there is no such warning this time. In fact, the bank says it expects the housing market to cool this year and next as a result of pent-up demand becoming satiated and relatively high home prices.

As well, the bank appears more confident that the private sector is ready to take the handoff from governments as the main driver of economic growth.

The bank says Canada’s reliance on government stimulus spending likely hit its peak at the end of 2009, representing about two per cent of all economic output for the country, and will decline this year.

By 2011, the private sector will be the sole driver of Canadian growth, the bank said.

But while Canada’s domestic demand continues to be the key driver of economic growth, the big change from October’s outlook is that prospects are also improving for the country’s battered export and manufacturing sectors.

“Export volumes are expected to continue to recover over the projection period in response to growing external demand and higher commodity prices. Export growth is projected to be somewhat stronger than was expected last October, owing to a more favourable outlook for the U.S. economy, particularly in the sectors that figure most importantly for Canadian exporters,” the bank says.

Those volumes would be even greater but for the strong Canadian loonie, it adds.

Canada’s auto and forest products sectors were particularly hard-hit during the recession, the bank notes, and will benefit most from renewed growth in the U.S. Canadian manufacturers shed about 200,000 jobs last year.

The central bank now says the U.S. gross domestic product will grow by 2.5 per cent this year, largely as a result of improvement in the financial sector. Three months ago, the bank estimated U.S. growth at a mere 1.8 per cent.

In Canada, the bank says the economy likely grew by 3.3 per cent in the last three months of 2009. For 2010, the economy will advance by 2.9 per cent, followed by a 3.5 per cent pickup in 2011.

In retrospect, the bank noted that Canada’s recession, while severe, was not nearly as damaging as it was in other industrialized countries, partly because of Canada’s solid banking system.

But neither has the recovery been particularly impressive in Canada, starting with a disappointing 0.4 per cent advance in the third quarter of 2009, which the bank attributes to a surprisingly strong influx in imports. The U.S., backed by a weak currency, rebounded more strongly with a 2.2-per-cent increase in the third quarter and a bouncy 4.7-per-cent advance in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The bank believes Canada will make up for the slow start this year, projecting it will advance stronger than the U.S., Japan and Europe.

The main engine of global growth remains China, however, which is expected to be back close to double-digit growth this year.

The Canadian Press