Carney Says Don't Take Rate Hike For Granted.

By Ka Yan Ng

CHARLOTTETOWN Prince Edward Island (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney cautioned investors on Wednesday not to take another interest rate hike for granted, saying volatile global conditions meant no particular path for monetary policy was preordained.

The central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point on June 1 to 0.5 percent, becoming the first in the Group of Seven wealthy countries to do so, and markets are pricing in a second rate hike on July 20.

"The bank must balance the competing influences on Canadian activity and inflation of momentum in domestic demand and the increasingly uneven global recovery," Carney said in a speech in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

"In light of the scale and volatility of these conflicting forces, it should be evident that no particular path for monetary policy is preordained."

Carney said the bank will need to be agile and take a subtle approach to monetary policy.

The central bank's next rate announcement is on July 20.

Yields on near-term overnight index swaps, which trade based on expectations for the Bank of Canada's key policy rate, showed markets see an 83.08 percent chance the bank will tighten rates further in July. This was down from 83.49 percent just before Carney's speech.

The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level since May 14 just after Carney's speech was released. It climbed to C$1.0224 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.81 U.S. cents, then pared gains to sit almost unchanged from Tuesday's close at C$1.0251, or 97.55 U.S. cents.

Canada's economy has recovered faster than predicted, fueled largely by consumer spending, and the bank expects it to be the fastest-growing G7 country over the next two years.

A cornerstone of the Canadian economic recovery had been a sturdy residential housing sector, but statistics earlier in the day showed the sector was cooling further. Sales of existing homes in Canada fell 9.5 percent in May from April, data showed.

Carney noted that the central bank's most recent forecast projected housing market activity would slow "markedly" for the balance of the year and that the latest resale numbers are consistent with that.

He also reiterated that growth would be handed off to the private sector as government stimulus winds down.

One of the key risks to the economic outlook lies externally as the Greek debt crisis and increasingly multi-speed global recovery could have spillover effects in Canada, Carney said.

"Canada is not an island ... The biggest risks we face are from abroad. Those are the biggest swings," he told reporters following his luncheon speech.

CARNEY TO G20: BE BOLD

To prevent the global recovery from derailing or creating crippling imbalances, Carney urged the G20 group of developing and advanced economies to commit to bold policy changes at their summit in Toronto this month.

"The fiscal challenges that face a number of advanced economies are addressable, but they are addressable with bold action and that was part of the point of the speech. That is very much part of the point of one of the core objectives for Canada at the G20 summit," Carney said.

The required changes include more flexible currencies and reforms to boost domestic demand in emerging economies like China, as well as reducing deficits and enhanced productivity and growth potential in advanced nations.

They must also follow through with their G20 pledge to reform the financial sector to avoid future meltdowns and to resist trade and financial protectionism, he said.

"These are all big decisions. How quickly and how effectively they are taken will influence activity and inflation in Canada and, therefore, the stance of monetary policy," he said.

Carney Says Don't Take Rate Hike For Granted.

Carney's Big Call

Paul Vieira, Financial Post

Ottawa -- Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has had a busy time of it since taking over as the country's central banker 27 months ago, mostly tackling the financial crisis, mapping out the road to recovery and reassuring Canadians that at the end of the day the bank's extraordinary policies would work.

The one thing he has yet to do during his term, however, is raise interest rates. That might be about to change on Tuesday. If he does pull the trigger - and that is what most analysts expect - it won't be after grappling with competing forces that convey two starkly different messages about the economic outlook.

"We are at point where it is a tug of war between structural issues that are facing the eurozone and a very strong economic cyclical backdrop," says Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank Financial.

Weighing on the governor are the economic data, which call out for a rate hike - as much as 50 basis points, some reckon. The data have been consistently strong and surprising to the upside. Job creation is in full swing, with a record 109,000 workers added to payrolls in April; consumers are buying up goods at a healthy pace, tax credits or not; corporate profits are rebounding to pre-recession levels; and inflation is creeping closer to the central bank's preferred 2% target. The sterling fundamentals prompted the central bank last month to ditch its conditional commitment to keep its policy rate at a record low 0.25% until July, leading traders to price in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike on June 1.

That was until sovereign debt worries exploded in Europe, once Greece formally asked for international help days after the last Bank of Canada rate decision. That sparked an across-the-board retreat in global equity markets, down 9.3% since the beginning of May, as traders sold stocks and poured into risk-averse U.S. treasuries and other government securities on fears that another credit crunch was at hand. Mr. Carney is likely aware of this better than most, given his capital markets background from Goldman Sachs.

The most worrying sign on Mr. Carney's radar screen might be the small but steady increases in the cost of borrowing among banks, a signal European lenders are finding it tough to access cash from their peers on concern over how much Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt they hold.

In the end, the consensus is Mr. Carney is leaning toward a rate hike - a modest one, though, of 25 basis points. The thinking is, an ounce of prevention now is worth a pound of cure later.

"We can't look at things in a vacuum, because there are so many other factors besides Europe's issues" says Jonathan Basile, an economist with Credit Suisse in New York who closely watches Canadian markets. "The truth is the macroeconomic evidence is outweighing the financial risks right now."

The last time the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate was in July 2007, by 25 basis points to 4.5%. At the time, former governor David Dodge said the economy was operating above its production potential, and inflation was likely to stay above its 2% inflation target for longer than forecast.

Little did Mr. Dodge know that the U.S. subprime crisis would morph into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, roiling markets and economies around the world. This is why Europe's recent fiscal woes have triggered a case of nerves, and might prompt Mr. Carney to rethink any rate move.

"The Bank of Canada wants to raise rates, but it doesn't have a crystal ball," CIBC World Markets said in a note to clients. "It can't be certain that the recent financial market downturn isn't going to morph into something more severe that would make a rate hike look out of place."

There's another school of thought, though, that suggests markets have overreacted to a regional problem. In this context, it is key to remember the Bank of Canada didn't expect the eurozone to contribute much to global growth, envisaging only 1.2% expansion this year and 1.6% in 2011.

"The European picture will calm down and people will realize it is not as dramatic as being played out," says Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.

Yes, he acknowledges, the debt-ridden southern European economies have tough years ahead. But other countries, led by Germany and France, are going to capitalize on the lower euro and boost their exports to emerging economies and North America, which will help offset the drag from the so-called Club Med nations.

Besides Europe, Mr. Carney has other factors to consider.

Canada's sovereign debt levels are indeed much better than the industrialized world, as our politicians like to remind us. But the amount of debt held by households, measured as a percentage of disposable income, stood at a historical high of 146% - of which 98% is mortgage related - at the end of 2009, rating agency DBRS estimates. That would put Canadian households ahead of the United States but behind Britain on this measure. A rate hike would signal it might be time to live more modestly and refrain from too much debt-financed consumption (which helped fuel those nasty asset bubbles that central banks may want to pay more attention to in the aftermath of the subprime debacle).

Mr. Carney's other challenge is to explain why, and what's ahead. He has come off a period where he provided extraordinary guidance to markets. Don't expect similar language from the governor.

If anything, Mr. Marion warns the central bank should refrain from using the type of guidance the U.S. Federal Reserve deployed in 2004, when it signalled a period of "moderate" rate hikes were in the offing.

In retrospect, the Fed's use of the word moderate "encouraged more financial excesses," leading to the subprime bust, Mr. Marion says. "Carney doesn't have to be brusque about it. He has the luxury to start slowly, and leave his options open," from pausing should Europe deteriorate to hiking aggressively, by 50 basis points, if conditions warrant.

Mr. Carney reminded us recently that "nothing is pre-ordained" at the Bank of Canada. He's likely to drive home that point on Tuesday, rate hike or not.

Financial Post

pvieira@nationalpost.com

Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=3084621#ixzz0pWefy3St

Carney's Big Call